Freshwater Pressures
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Freshwater Fish Extinction Rates due to Water Availability Loss from Climate Change

Future Distribution Stream Macroinvertebrates

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Based on a global geospatial framework of river drainage basins and on future climate data from 18 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) from the ‘pessimistic’ IPCC scenario (A2), we quantify future active drainage basin area losses and combine them with an extinction rate–area curve to project future surface-dependent extinction rates. We then estimate the future projected change in extinction rate worldwide and project the number of extinct species in 1010 river basins.


Research Institute for Development (IRD), National Museum of Natural History (Paris, France) (link)

see also:

Tedesco, P.A., Oberdorff, T., Cornu, J-F., Beauchard, O., Brosse, S., Dürr, H.H., Grenouillet, G., Leprieur, F., Tisseuil, C., Zaiss, R. & Hugueny B. (2013). A scenario for impacts of water availability loss due to climate change on riverine fish extinction rates. Journal of Applied Ecology. doi: 10.1111/1365-2664.12125 (link).


with support provided by: French National Agency for Research (ANR) FISHLOSS project and BioFresh project

ANR BioFresh


Pablo A. Tedesco email, Jean-François Cornu, Bernard Hugueny and Thierry Oberdorff


Pablo A. Tedesco, Jean-Francois Cornu, Bernard Hugueny & Thierry Oberdorff 
Museum National d'Histoire Naturelle 
43 rue Cuvier 
75231 Paris Cedex, France

Related Publications

  • Hugueny, B., Movellan, A. & Belliard, J. (2011). Habitat fragmentation and extinction rates within freshwater fish communities: a faunal relaxation approach. Global Ecology and Biogeography 20: 449-463.
  • Pachauri, R.K. & Reisinger, A. (2007). Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC, Geneva.
  • Xenopoulos, M.A., Lodge, D.M., Alcamo, J., Marker, M., Schulze, K. & Van Vuuren, D.P. (2005). Scenarios of freshwater fish extinctions from climate change and water withdrawal. Global Change Biology 11: 1557-1564.

base layer references

  • HydroSHEDS database (Hydrological data and maps based on Shuttle Elevation Derivatives at multiple Scales; Lehner et al. 2008). 
    Lehner, B., Verdin, K. & Jarvis, A. (2008). New Global Hydrography Derived From Spaceborne Elevation Data. Eos 89: 93.


This work was supported by the French National Agency for Research (ANR) FISHLOSS project (ANR-09-PEXT-008-01) and by the EU BioFresh Project (7th Framework European Program, Contract No. 226874).

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